Consultant Fitch Solutions anticipates a 6.2% growth in Mozambique's economy over the next ten years, above the 5.9% average between 2009 and 2018, due to large investments in megaprojects.
“We expect GDP to grow by 6.2% on average between 2019 and 2028, above the 5.9% average between 2009 and 2018, with economic growth accelerating slowly over the next decade due to the flow of investment in the sector. of raw materials, ”reads the analysis the consultant makes for the next decade in Mozambique.
According to the report, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, these investments "will allow the country to recover from the collapse in the price of raw materials and the suspension of donor budget support".
For consultants, this change "will cause consumption to fall as a percentage of GDP, increasing investment and net exports."
In the short-term forecast, Fitch Solutions is forecast to grow by 1.4% this year and 3.8% in 2020, affected by the effects of Idai and Kenneth cyclones.
On the political front, analysts recall the tension between Frelimo and Renamo and argue that despite the crackdown, “the gains made since the ceasefire signed in December 2016 will motivate parties to stick to the new deal for at least the next two years. years".
"However, the risks of a return to instability remain high, particularly due to the October elections, as previous elections resulted in a peak of political violence," they add.
The Mozambican Liberation Front (Frelimo, in power) is expected to win the elections and keep the majority in Parliament, Fitch estimates, which will "continue the policies," they conclude.